In those final seven starts, he averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game, the third-best mark in this data set behind only Deshaun Watson (24.1) and Justin Herbert (22.2). Lamar Jackson‘s numbers need adjustment as he took over as the starter for Joe Flacco in Week 11 but appeared in the nine games before as a situational runner.But in terms of hitting truly elite numbers, only 37.5 percent (nine QBs) had a top-6 season within the first three years.Among the 16 QBs who didn’t hit that mark, only five made the jump in Year 2 to that 17 fppg threshold. All of the QBs who put up that number in their rookie year maintained that number or improved upon it in Year 2… except Baker Mayfield.13 of the 24 QBs hit our top-12 threshold within the first two years, that’s a 54 percent hit rate. I zeroed in on that figure to give you a relative top-12 QB benchmark. There was a clear break from QBs averaging 17+ fantasy points per game as a rookie… and everyone else.Perhaps a better measurement is combining those two statistics and seeing what these rookie QBs did on a per-start basis.Now if only the Packers were in a similar situation in 2023 where they had a young QB waiting in the wings to take their starting role after years of twiddling their thumbs… The Brett Favres and Aaron Rodgers of the world who have to wait multiple years to get a starting job are the outliers. Manziel, Lynch, and Trey Lance were the only ones in this group to not start at least six games.įantasy Points– Raw fantasy points may seem like a silly thing to measure but what it does display for us is simple: were they on the field enough to make a dent? It coincides with games started as forcing your way onto the field earlier in your NFL career is a better sign for the future and securing a long-term contract as a QB. If we focus on Kenny Pickett (pick 20) or anyone else taken later in the 1st round, the start time was pushed back to Week 8 on average. Since 2012, every 1st round rookie QB (except Jordan Love) has had at least one start in Year 1 and the average start time was Week 4. Number of starts– Among these 24 QBs listed above, only five started every single game for their respective NFL franchises as a rookie. I want to point your attention to the various thresholds for QBs over their first couple of years. Yes, there are some fun (and downright laughable) names on this list including Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, and Josh Rosen.
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